Average 30-Year Fixed Rate: 6.203% | Market Outlook, Jobs Data, Buyer Behavior & What It Means for Real Estate

Mortgage rates kicked off the week with the average 30-year fixed at 6.203%, according to the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index.
That’s down slightly from a mid-week high of 6.251% and not far from the recent multi-year low of 6.118%. Buyers waiting for better affordability are getting exactly what they hoped for slow, steady improvement through fall.

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Will the Fed Cut Rates in December?

Right now, the market shows a 66.9% probability of a December rate cut, almost unchanged from last week.
Investors are holding onto hope, even after Powell made it clear that a cut is “far from a foregone conclusion.”

Translation: The door is open, not guaranteed.

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Government Shutdown Impact: Why Markets Are Flying Blind

The government shutdown is officially the longest in U.S. history, and now the ripple effects are reaching the economy and consumers:

• Economic data is delayed, meaning investors don’t have the normal reports they rely on.
• Air travel is being impacted, with the FAA limiting flights nationwide.
• USDA loans remain frozen, since there’s no staff to process them.

With less data, markets are functioning without clear direction, and mortgage rates are driven by those same investors trading mortgage-backed securities.

There is good news:
The Senate passed a temporary agreement to fund the government through the end of January. It still needs approval from the House and then the White House, but it’s forward progress.

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Local Housing Market: What We’re Seeing on the Ground

We’re seeing a surge of new contracts, but fewer pre-approvals compared to the last couple of months.

What’s interesting is buyer behavior:

• Many buyers are not actively shopping, but the second the right home hits the market?
• They’re writing offers fast — sometimes before they even connect with us.

Big takeaway:
Agents who are winning right now are putting homes in front of people who don’t think they’re ready to buy.
Social media is working. Inventory is still tight. And the right house still motivates buyers instantly.

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Market Snapshot: Week of November 3, 2025

Private-Sector Jobs: Small Rebound

The ADP Employment Report shows private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, after negative numbers in August and September.

Breakdown by company size:

Company size	Change
Small (1–49 employees)	–10K
Medium (50–499 employees)	–21K
Large (500+ employees)	+73K

Wage growth:

• Job changers: +6.7% YoY
• Job stayers: +4.5% YoY

Over the last 3 months, total private-sector job growth = +10,000 barely positive.
And with the shutdown delaying most federal data, the Fed is leaning more on ADP and private reports.

➡️ Why it matters for rates:
Still not strong enough to force the Fed to hold rates higher, but not weak enough to guarantee a cut.

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Home Prices: Slight Dip, Better Outlook Ahead

• September prices dipped 0.2% month-to-month
• Still +1.2% year-over-year
• 12-month forecast improved to +4.1%, up from 3.9%

Why this matters for buyers:
Lower rates + pent-up demand = firmer price support.

➡️ A $500,000 home appreciating 4% adds ~$20,000 in equity in a year.
Real estate continues to build wealth quietly while people wait on the sidelines.

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What to Watch This Week

• Some inflation and retail reports are delayed due to the shutdown
• Still coming: ICE home price update, NFIB Small Business Optimism
• Treasury auctions (10-yr Wednesday, 30-yr Thursday) could move mortgage rates depending on demand

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Technical Rate Picture

• Mortgage-backed securities: trading in a tight range
  Support at the 50-day moving average
  Resistance at the 25-day; room to improve ~30 bps if we break higher
• 10-year Treasury: testing the 50-day MA
  Break higher → next target 4.126% Fibonacci level
  Hold → yields may ease

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Bottom Line for Buyers & Real Estate Pros

• Rates are still in a better range than much of 2025
• Job market is stabilizing, not weakening
• Home price forecasts are strengthening
• Buyers are moving quickly when the right home hits

This is a prime time to re-engage buyers who paused late summer before broader demand ramps up again.

If your clients need updated pre-approvals in this friendlier rate environment, or want to model payment differences at today’s rates, our team can help.