Happy Monday,

We open the week with the average 30-year fixed clocking in at 6.327% according to the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index—up from 6.268% the week before, and from the annual low of 6.170% the day before the last Fed rate cut.

It’s jobs week, now the most important week of the month for mortgage rates. The Fed is more concerned about labor now than they are with inflation, as the unemployment rate has been on the rise and continuing unemployment claims tell us it’s taking longer for people to find work.

Remember, the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates—the bond market does. Bond traders and investors are forward-looking, which means today’s mortgage rates already reflect every Fed rate cut that’s currently expected.

I want to emphasize that: mortgage rates today already reflect the 89% chance of another Fed cut on October 29th.

So, when a buyer says: “I think we want to wait until they drop the rates again in October” … your answer can be:
“Great news! Mortgage rates already reflect that cut, so you’re good to go right now.”

This week’s jobs data will be pivotal:

• Tuesday: JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey)
• Wednesday: ADP Payrolls
• Friday: BLS Jobs Report (including unemployment)

The Fed has two mandates—keep inflation under control and keep Americans employed. Inflation isn’t yet at their 2% target, but it’s sticky, and tariffs are playing a role. The bigger risk now is rising unemployment. If labor data weakens further, expect rates to move lower as the Fed leans into more aggressive cuts.

Meanwhile, housing inventory is the strongest since 2019. Beyond the numbers, there are some truly beautiful homes hitting the market. We’ve already seen more activity from buyers who believe rates are easing. Imagine the momentum once rates start meaningfully trending down.

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Market Snapshot: Week of September 22, 2025

📈 Inflation Stays in Check
Core PCE rose 0.2% in August, steady at 2.9% year-over-year. Overall inflation ticked up slightly to 2.7%.

💼 Jobless Claims Trend Lower
Initial claims fell to 218,000, but continuing claims remain above 1.9 million for the 18th straight week.

🏡 Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
Sales slipped 0.2% in August to a 4M annual pace. Inventory is nearly 12% higher than last year.

🚀 New Home Sales Surge
New home sales jumped nearly 21% to an 800,000 pace, the fastest since early 2022.

📊 GDP Rebounds
Q2 GDP revised higher to 3.8%, reflecting strong economic growth after a weak Q1.

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What’s Ahead This Week

• Monday: Pending Home Sales
• Tuesday: Home Price Index reports + JOLTS
• Wednesday: ADP Payrolls
• Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims + Q2 GDP final revision
• Friday: September Jobs Report (always a market mover)

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Bottom Line for Real Estate

Rates are easing in the long term, housing inventory is strong, and buyer activity is already ticking up. This is the time to guide clients past the misconception that they need to “wait for the next Fed cut.” Today’s mortgage rates already reflect it.

Thanks for reading! Always if you have questions or want to nerd out.

-Corey Freels