📰 Market Update – October 14, 2025
📌 Headlines at a Glance
- Day 14 of the federal shutdown with data releases stalled
- 30-year fixed mortgage rate holding steady (6.25%ish)
- Labor reports delayed; ADP shows 32,000 jobs lost
- Tariff chatter shakes markets
- Next Fed chair pick could reshape policy direction
1 | Shutdown, Data Drought & Rate Backdrop
We’ve entered the 14th day of the government shutdown, and that standoff is quietly reshaping how markets react. On the mortgage front, the 30-year fixed rate remains firmly in the mid-6’s. According to the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index, it is hovering around 6.20%—largely flat from recent readings. FRED+1
Because major government agencies are furloughed, key releases like the BLS labor report have been delayed. In their stead, the ADP private payroll report dropped a modest (or concerning) 32,000 jobs lost—adding to the uncertainty.
One interesting twist: there’s talk that CPI inflation data might still be released (perhaps around October 25) because the team managing it has been called back to work. If true, that could reintroduce volatility quickly.
2 | Markets Pivot on Policy, Tweets & Tariffs
In the absence of fresh economic prints, markets are leaning heavily on geopolitical signals and narrative.
For example, over the weekend, a new round of tariff talks floated by Trump via Truth Social rattled markets. Mortgages actually ticked slightly lower off the tariff fears—and then reversed when follow-up statements insisted tensions with China were calm. So much of what’s happening now is noise — and momentum — not fundamentals.
Another looming driver: the next Fed chair. Jerome Powell’s term wraps in May 2026, and Washington is already eyeing his successor. Given the current administration’s appetite for rate relief, the odds favor someone “dovish,” leaning toward cuts rather than hawkish restraint. Two names getting buzz:
- Chris Waller — sitting Fed governor, often seen as rate-friendly
- Kevin Hassett — former White House economist, closely tied to the current administration
Once the nominee is confirmed, markets will hang on every speech, meeting, and nuance. That person’s tone could move yields more than data might in this environment.
3 | Why Homeownership Still Has Legs 🏡
Even amid the uncertainty, we view today as a solid window for buyers:
- Inventory is thin — many potential sellers are waiting, pulling listings off the market
- Affordability has improved — rates have dipped slightly, opening pockets of opportunity
- Buyer return — those who sat on the sidelines are inching back in
Let’s not wait for the “perfect moment.” The crowd will return, and with it come pressure on prices. Let’s encourage clients to act before momentum shifts.
4 | Deep Dive: Market Snapshot (Week of October 6, 2025)
🏘 Home Price Trends
Cotality’s recent reports confirm what many have sensed: August home prices dipped ~0.3% month over month but remain up 1.3% year over year. Meanwhile, ICE data for September picked up slight momentum: +0.17% monthly, +1.2% annually. (Note: as of this writing, more recent Cotality data is pending.) Cotality+1
Forecasts from housing analytics suggest ~4% home price growth over the coming year, supported by stable rates and demand.
Real estate, when timed right, continues to be one of the most effective vehicles for wealth building. As a reminder: on a $500,000 property, 4% appreciation adds $20,000 in equity in one year.
🏦 Fed Minutes: A House Divided
The recent minutes reveal internal tension. Although the Fed delivered a rate cut in September, opinions diverge on the next move. Some officials are fixated on inflation stickiness; others flag rising unemployment risks. Powell himself recently remarked there’s “no risk-free path” forward.
With the government shutdown blurring future data releases, the Fed’s upcoming meeting on October 29 is now more pivotal than ever.
🛒 Retail Slows but Is Still Resilient
After a heady summer, September retail sales eased slightly (per the National Retail Federation), with declines in five of nine categories. However, most categories still show healthy annual gains, especially in e-commerce, apparel, and sporting goods.
Why does this matter? Strong consumer spending gives the Fed more latitude to stay cautious. Weak spending, in contrast, would make a rate cut more politically feasible.
5 | What to Watch This Week
- Homebuilder confidence from the National Association of Home Builders (Thursday)
- Any resumptions of delayed reports (inflation, retail, housing starts)
- Commentary from Fed officials and potential hints on rate trajectory
- News on the Fed chair nomination — that may steal the spotlight
✅ Bottom Line for Clients & Your Pipeline
- Inventory is slipping tighter, but sentiment is still fragile
- Affordability is better than it’s been in over two years
- Buyers are starting to re-engage
- Moving early may give clients an edge
Share this with your sphere: timing the market is less effective than being in the market at the right moments. Encourage action now, while optionality still exists.
— The Mortgage Gallery Team